Market futurists are betting the US government’s national debt will soar by another $10 trillion by the end of President Trump’s term.
The decentralized prediction platform Kalshi says that based on the price of recent trades, the US national debt is now forecasted to grow from about $36 trillion to $46 trillion by 2029.
The site has also added a live US debt tracker to its website.
“Both Democrats and Republicans have failed to curb government spending… Now you can watch the national debt grow live on Kalshi.”
The Kobeissi Letter, a newsletter about global markets, says that if the US debt reaches $46 trillion, it would be “officially up +100% since 2020” and warns of dire consequences.
“On our current fiscal path, US bankruptcy is simply a matter of time. Something must change.”
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has also been warning of severe economic and financial consequences as the US national debt is now on pace to rise from about $230,000 per American household to $425,000 per American household over the next decade.
Dalio believes the remedy is to cut spending and raise taxes to lower the annual deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio.
“This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions.
Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur.”
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