Bitcoin (BTC) is following a certain market structure from 2018 ‘move for move,’ according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 744,000 YouTube followers that in January of 2018, Bitcoin managed to print higher lows between $9,000 to $11,000.
[adinserter block="1"]Cowen notes Bitcoin eventually cratered and put in a new low at the time around $5,800.
“You can see in 2018, we had a low, we had a higher low, [and] we had this one [which is] a pathetic attempt at a higher low. [We] ultimately put in a lower low and the back up to the trendline. Furthermore, it was a rejection off the 200-day simple moving average [SMA] in between.”
According to Cowen, Bitcoin has been mirroring the 2018 market structure over the last few months. He highlights that BTC printed several higher lows between $30,000 to $39,000 from January to May before eventually correcting all the way down to $26,000.
The crypto trader adds that if BTC actually follows the fractal, then Bitcoin could be in for a strong rally.
“What happened [in 2018] is that we went back up to the trend line that held resistance because in bear markets trend lines tend to hold resistance. We also went back up to the 200-day moving average, so there was a little bit of confluence there between that trend line where we were putting in higher lows and the 200-day SMA.”
Cowen notes that if you were to hypothetically extend the current 200-day moving average to mid-June, it probably will sit somewhere between $40,000 and $42,000.
“With that in mind, we must wonder, ‘Well is that level important?’ And I would argue it’s very important. The $40,000 to $42,000 level carries a lot of weight with Bitcoin because that was where we first got rejected back in January of 2021. We got rejected by it in the summer of 2021 as well after we fell below it… So if the fractal is to play out – which, as always, is a big if – it would mean over the next several weeks, we could see that pump back up to approximately $40,000, plus or minus a couple thousand dollars.”
Bitcoin is trading for $29,305 at time of writing. The top-ranked crypto asset by market cap is down more than 2.5% in the past 24 hours.
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