Krüger tells his 153,900 Twitter followers that the Federal Reserve is likely near the end of raising interest rates to tame inflation, and will likely pivot in December.
He believes the markets will anticipate the Fed’s pivot and start rallying as early as August.
“The Fed has delivered 20 x 25bps (basis points) rate hikes in its fastest and most aggressive hiking cycle in history. Which means at least 90% of the Fed hikes are behind (if not all). That to me is all that matters, and makes it easy to stay long. This has been my view all year.
My base case is a December pivot and a bull market gearing up in early August to front run this. Why? The economy is cooling and inflation is falling. The Fed is forced to overshoot (hiking) due to its past errors … which increases odds of it pivoting when data rolls over.”
Krüger says even if inflation proves more sticky and the Fed does not pivot in December, he still believes the markets will end 2023 higher than they are trading at today.
“If core inflation remains sticky there will be no pivot in 2023, but with the Fed at least 90% done regardless (and the AI revolution) upside into year end still is a good bet.”
The crypto trader also says he is taking long positions on both BTC and ETH, betting on them having big moves to the upside.
According to Krüger, Bitcoin is having a challenging time crossing the key $30,000 level because investors are selling on rallies and volume.
Krüger says that if Bitcoin can cross the $30,000 level and fails to form a head and shoulders pattern, which is used in technical analysis to determine a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal, it will likely soar.
“Meanwhile, on BTC land it’s been hard to push higher as everyone has been emboldened to sell rips and vol. But if by chance the market manages to get above $30,000, then TA (technical analysis) says that’s a major failed [head and shoulders] bear trap [and] high odds of a strong rip.
I am decently long BTC and ETH via spot and calls, and ready to get more aggressive later in the year.”
However, the crypto trader warns that if Bitcoin retests $26,000, the digital asset may show further weakness.
“On the downside, if BTC pushes back down to $26,000, chart to me says should see a decent flush on a stops run (good spot to de-risk if very long).”
Bitcoin is trading for $27,702 at time of writing, while Ethereum is worth $1,904.Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox
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