The US financial giant Fidelity is analyzing what it may take to bring Bitcoin and crypto back into a bull market.
In a new note to investors, Fidelity details five historical catalysts that have ended past crypto winters since 2011.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle leads the list. The last bottom was November 2022 and a repeat could mean a bottom around November 2026.
“Approximately every four years, the Bitcoin network is programmed to cut its mining rewards in half. This reduces the rate at which new bitcoin enters circulation. If demand holds steady or increases while new supply decreases, the price of bitcoin may go up as a result…
That said, crypto investors may only want to use 4-year cycles as a form of big-picture analysis, rather than a mechanical way to time a trade. The cycles aren’t exactly 4 years long. Some have been longer, while others have been shorter.”
Regulatory developments rank second, with Fidelity noting crypto-friendly rules have sparked bulls before.
Monetary policy shifts are third, with Fed rate cuts boosting crypto as a risk asset.
New use cases come in at number four. NFTs and memecoins drove the prior bull, with real-world asset tokenization, stablecoins and AI infrastructure now showing potential.
“…A catalyst for a crypto bull market could also be something no one sees coming. In either case, widespread adoption could trigger a new wave of investor excitement and drive new money into crypto.”
Institutional adoption is last on the list, with Fidelity noting the 2025 US strategic crypto reserve helped push Bitcoin to records.
Fidelity stresses no one can predict when or if a bull market will return, and says investors should risk only what they can afford to lose.
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