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BTC has really been in the doldrums since our last analysis.
A number of analyses are calling for BTC to drop to $4,000, making comparisons to the 2014 bear market. However, in short, I think that comparison is just too obvious. If people are actively anticipating BTC going to 4k, why aren’t we there yet?
If you remember, I was in that camp and I think it would have already hit that level – if we were going to 4k. Many of the same charts have BTC going to the moon after we hit 4k. If you think it’s going to moon, why not start buying some now? It appears that is what’s happening now as we carve out this bottom in conjunction with this ascending gold trendline I have outlined on my chart.
If we look, this wedge pattern has shifted from a downward channel, to trying to form a descending triangle, to now basing out at the gold trendline. This shift, along with the massive divergence on RSI and MACD that is forming, lead me to believe that we will get a break to the upside. If we zoom out and look at the weekly chart, it appears this could be a massive continuation pattern. The first target after we break out will be to $10,000.
We do need to be mindful that if we do in fact break this 5.7k mark, we could very well have more downside in the cards and the next target before a rebound would be 5 – 5.25k area at the bottom of this channel.
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I am biased to the upside with what I am seeing at this point. My best guess for a major move to happen will be after the VanEck ETF decision by the SEC this month. I imagine we will have a similar reaction to when the other ETFs got sidelined. Nothing will happen after the announcement, and then we will move up. There is no reason the SEC would approve the VanEck ETF at this point and it should not be a surprise to anyone that it gets delayed.
If the market rockets down after that ETF gets denied it will be a clear sign of either manipulation or stupidity. In my view, the only surprise should be if this gets approved. Otherwise, the SEC will kick the approval down the road as long as possible because that’s what they do.
Happy hodling.
-Sherem
