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A lot of people compare the current BTC scenario to 2014 BTC, and while I think those situations are similar, I think BTC is under very different circumstances now compared to back in 2014.
With the recent volume spike, I began to wonder if anyone had compared BTC 2014 to a current ETH chart, and I am glad I did the comparison. This analysis will detail some of the comparison and what could happen, as it relates to BTC 2014. Keep that in mind as you read.
Before I go into some details, check out how similar they look.
Here are the noticeable things that stick out to me.
- High volume near the bottom of BTC, similar to the volume we got on ETH
- 81% decline on BTC from the high, 88% decline on ETH!
- The topping pattern was really similar and the rebound was also eerily close – different levels, but very close
- Time – ETH did this cycle in 322 days, compared to BTC’s 476 days
What does it all mean?
If we gauge the BTC 2014 chart, it would mean ETH has bottomed. This is it. Once we break this gold trend line we will go higher. But, in comparing it to BTC, how quickly does that move take place?
If we compare it to 2014 BTC, it took 11 months for BTC to go from 200 to roughly 500. Knowing that ETH uses a compressed time scale, and if we follow a similar scale, as shown in the cart above, it would be safe to assume that we will go to 500 in at least 6 months or less. These comparisons are weighing 2014 BTC to the current market conditions. However, things are now very different. We have cross pairs, more crypto, lots of development, etc.
Personally, I tend to think the bottom is in Ethereum and that we will start moving in October, once this Friday has come and gone with CME futures and the new Ethereum upgrade rolls out. In my opinion I think it will take far less time to hit 500. But this is crypto, we know it’s volatile and does its own thing.
The question is, does Ethereum base out and move as high as Bitcoin has gone? Up to 6k? Do we move sideways? Personally, I have laddered in my buys to hodl on to Ethereum for the next wave up.
Happy Hodling,
Sherem
