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We are getting some movement on Bitcoin (BTC) and starting to flirt with this trend line.
I want to point out this chart so people are aware. Most everyone has probably seen a chart like the above. When people think BTC is going to go to 4k, they have it going to the moon right after, as seen above.
I am here to tell you why that thinking is flawed at the present moment. Quite simply. If you think BTC is going to 50k, does it matter if you buy at 4k or 6k?
No. It doesn’t at all. You still make a ton of money if BTC goes up from 6k or from 4k to that type of dollar figure.
I was in the “BTC going to 4k camp” at one point. If it was going to go to $4,000, it would have. BTC has had plenty of time to do it.
Let me lay out what I am seeing right now, instead of forcing the typical “capitulation, despair cycle” post. The cycle is compressing.
1. Volume
What makes an accumulation phase? It’s when people dump, get tired of holding an asset or have to sell (capitulation) and the price doesn’t break down, and eventually sellers get worn out, and it causes price to form a “base”. Check out the comparisons. Volume has been decreasing as the sellers have vanished. It makes sense that this cycle is quicker and compressed, as BTC has proven itself in the markets and isn’t going away.
2. Fractals
Compare the bubbles I drew from 2014-2015 to what is going on now. You get really similar patterns. The one disparity between the two comparisons is the fourth bubble, in 2014, when we created a higher high. Maybe we are in June of 2014? Either way, we have very similar price movements ,and this leads me to believe we will soon break this trend line to the upside.
3. Weekly MACD cross to the upside
It makes sense that this next cycle will compress and move up sooner.
My bias is to the upside. Of course, this is crypto, so no one knows for sure what will happen. If we break these trend lines, I believe we will be headed to 10k.
It’s hard to say if we will go to the ATHs yet. We will have to wait and see whether or not we move sideways like a June 2014 move, or start rocketing up.
Happy Hodling,
Sherem
