When to Hodl Bitcoin (BTC) and When Not To
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Hey everyone,
If you have been following me, you know a few things about my posts. That I am not a perma bear and that I am not a perma bull either. You probably also know that I ladder in my entries. I have written numerous times about my strategy and how it looks. For the past two to three months, I have been laddering in my positions in preparation for a large move to the upside. I am still targeting 10k. Let me go into why I am doing this and detail one of the core beliefs behind it.
If you remember back in May, one of my targets was 4k. I developed a strategy and entry points around that, if the worst case scenario were to happen and play out. Which it is. While I am entering in ladder positions on BTC. All of my ladder positions have been filled on ETH and others. From 450 down to 200. I am down on those positions right now, which is fine. It sucks, but that’s the market.
Sherem, there is a ton of bad news. You are either stupid, crazy or both! Perhaps. But remember what Buffet said: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
I entered in at 6.5k and I have ladders down to 4k, with an emergency one at 3k. I am investing over the next months. I guess you can call it long-term swing trading, maybe?
Here’s the thing – if you are trading you need to expect loses mixed in with your wins. If you are good, really good, you can out trade any buy-and-hold person. But are you that good? Personally, I am not 100% of the time. IMO, the time to trade has passed. It’s time to load up for the next wave up and continue to do so. (I am not calling BTC to 50k here. I am calling BTC to like 10k.
You could keep trying to beat your 50% win rate and beat the market. But what if you miss those four weeks where BTC went from 5k to 20k? It’s gonna suck. This is why I am positioning myself to ride the next wave up. I don’t feel I am too early with this. Let me go into detail why.
First, this hinges on the core belief that I do not believe crypto is going away. Now keep in mind that I have weighted my portfolios accordingly as to what I believe will be better performing and BTC is not my heaviest weighting by any means. But that is a decision you can make.
Crypto has been around for 10 years. It’s already been through a couple different types of markets – bull runs, bear runs, etc. I believe we will head back up again. Switzerland just launched an ETP on their $1.6 trillion market hitting Thursday. We have BAKKT, ETH futures coming out. Binance, Bitfinex, Coinbase making billions of dollars. (They need to attract customers, gotta keep that market up!) Banks getting involved wanting in on this. Even the prospect of the SEC approving VanEck this month after the meeting notes came out.
These are the reasons I am buying in and laddering. I have already filled all my positions on ETH and LTC. On Ripple I am already profitable and I added more. I am watching what happens over the coming months and will evaluate accordingly.
Once a catalyst comes out, we will go up in a hurry. We need to break 6.5k for a sustained up move. Until then, look for rebounds from 4k to 6k, and this wedge to further ratify.
Happy Hodling,
Sherem
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