It’s very clear that there is a ton of upside pressure on Bitcoin right now. Any dip in the last few days has been met with aggressive buying. BTC could go up higher. I don’t know where precisely it will turn as this is crypto and pinpointing that exact moment can be difficult. But let me lay out what I am looking at for the turn and why I think it’s just a matter of time before it does indeed turn back to the downside.
Here is one simple question for you. Do you honestly believe BTC will just go straight to the moon? Seriously, it will just go straight to $100k? Markets ebb and flow. Major players who bought in at $3k have now made just shy of 4x on their money.
Let’s look at this from the perspective of the big boys. Coinbase. BitMEX. Binance, etc.
When there is a ton of FUD like there was to drive BTC down to $3k, it was the perfect time to scoop up cheap BTC from retail traders. Conversely, when there are moon shoot calls everywhere, it’s the perfect time to dump expensive BTC on retail traders.
Think about this. These major players bought BTC down at $3k in major blocks. Anyone of these guys that bought $100 million worth of BTC now has $400 million worth. Do you honestly think they aren’t slowly dumping on retail traders, on every average Joe who believes we are going to the moon?
And do you honestly believe that as major corporations, they all believe that they will put BTC going to the moon over investors, shareholders, employees they need to pay? Money to stash in their coffers?
They don’t need it to moon or go to $20k right now. They just made millions and billions of dollars. They need price to stay up at these highs for as long as possible to transfer their purchases to retail traders.
When the gig is up and these large players start competing for who is going to take profit, you will see a cascade to the downside and we’ll get our pullback. Maybe we go a little higher soon. But we will indeed get a pullback here in the near future.
Technically, we are at this major resistance of $12k. A 50% fib. RSI double top. While MACD is still strong, for the reasons I outlined above, I believe it’s just a matter of time before we move further down. For healthy markets, we need ebb and flow, not straight to the moon. We are at a point where a pullback will happen. It’s just a matter of when.
Happy Trading and Hodling,
Sherem
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