New research from digital asset management fund Grayscale looks at Bitcoin’s trajectory since US President Donald Trump first announced the tariff hike in May as the US-China trade war has continued to escalate. The researchers compare the performance of BTC against 20 other asset classes, markets and currencies to analyze whether the world’s leading cryptocurrency is holding up as a hedge.
“While the risk asset drawdown is still in its early stages, we’re already witnessing Bitcoin’s price move higher. Specifically, Bitcoin has generated a cumulative return of 104.8% between May 5 — when tariff hikes were announced — and August 7, compared to an average drawdown of -0.5% for the other asset classes we analyzed over the same period…
There are significant shifts taking place in monetary, fiscal, and trade policies around the world that will likely impact global markets well into the future. While we don’t know when or at what levels the current drawdown will end, it is clear that the challenges faced by politicians and policymakers will be difficult to manage given the complexity of our global financial system. Bitcoin could be a useful tool in helping investors insulate their portfolios from any failure to manage these problems effectively.”
The researchers indicate that investors are unaware of the frequency of global financial crises and how they impact the markets.
“Financial crises are becoming more common and global…Unfortunately, these broad-based drawdowns in asset prices happen with greater frequency than most investors realize.
The authors conclude that Bitcoin “is on the rise as these risks are just beginning to show up in other asset and currency prices.”
Assets during escalation of US-China trade war
May 5, 2019 – August 7, 2019
- Bitcoin 104.8%
- COMEX Gold Index 17.4%
- Bloomberg Barclays Global Bond Index 5.1%
- Japanese Yen (JPY) 4.5%
- Swiss Franc (CHF) 4.2%
- Thai Baht (THB) 3.5%
- Canadian Dollar (CAD) 0.9%
- DJCME Spot FX Index 0.0%
- Euro (EUR) 0.0%
- Russian Ruble (RUB) -0.4%
- Brazilian Real (BRL) -0.7%
- Singapore Dollar (SGD) -1.6%
- S&P 500 Index -2.1%
- Argentine Peso (ARS) -2.2%
- MSCI World Index -2.9%
- Nasdaq Composite -3.7%
- Chinese Renminbi (RMB) -4.6%
- MSCI EAFE Index -4.7%
- Bloomberg Commodity Index -4.8%
- British Pound (GBP) -7.8%
- MSCI Emerging Markets Index -10.2%
Source: Grayscale
You can check out the full report from Grayscale here.
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