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XRP has been in a brutal downtrend with 603 days of lower highs forming, regardless of having what many view as great fundamentals. This includes a groundbreaking partnership with MoneyGram, which has committed to using XRP the digital asset, as well as over 200 partners announced for xCurrent.
The market structure below depicts a very clean picture on the macro trend.
There is a clear pattern of lower highs that has developed over time and equal lows until now. In late August price broke down from the equal lows and into the 2017 range shown in red. Bulls will need to step in quickly or XRP risks going to the 2017 range low of $.15-17. A recovery of blue can lead to a retest of the last lower high at $.50. The breakdown after consolidating above the 2017 range for over a year is inherently bearish, but all is not lost.
In order to build a bullish case for XRP, blue must be reclaimed; however, reclamation would only create a bullish case on the micro structure. For XRP to become bullish on the macro, it must take out the last lower high at $.50 which is also where position traders would be looking to step in. Looking at the historical pivot at that spot, we can see it brings a lot of liquidity and breakout traders. It would also create the first higher high in over 600 days signaling a true reversal.
XRP provides a great example of what great news looks like when an asset has a bearish market structure. Great news and declining price is the sign of weak market conditions. Great news in a bearish structure can only take you as high as the last lower high, or the last swing low prior to breakdown. Otherwise, market structure would not exist in the first place and would be chaotic. If XRP were to break market structure and head into a bull market, then news would allow price to maintain momentum and sustain appreciation. However, the conditions first must be met of changing structure.
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