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Gentlemen, friends, traders, hodlers,
I have been anticipating a fall from this area for quite some time and some of my previous analysis has gotten that right on the money. We have been bouncing off this 9.3-9.5k for a while, and while I thought it was going to break last time, it rebounded again.
While we might get another bounce to the upside, it seems a break down is just a matter of time. The descending triangle pattern is more telling than anything. But what’s more is we have a negative MACD on the daily that is about to cross. We also have lagging RSI that doesn’t bode well either. Even on the weekly, MACD has crossed to the downside and RSI looks weak.
If we look at the chart with a keener eye, we can see we have an even greater similarity to a pattern that happened before. However, this pattern seems to be compressed like it’s happening much quicker.
The first thing to notice is back in March of 2018. Look how we had two peaks and how they compare to the present outlined in purple. Very similar.
Then we have been making a series of lower highs just like before. Even after the first dip, we had a similar pattern form in the bright purple line, but again, the time compression is much smaller. This leads me to believe that we might get another smaller bounce off of 9.3k to 10k again. But is it worth the risk with a potential massive downward move? That remains to be seen.
If we look at the magnitude of the last descending triangle, we had a 41% move to the down side. If that were to happen again, we would get a move down all the way to the 5.5k-6k area before basing out. I believe just above 7k will make for a good trade, but it will require discipline knowing that we could drop to the 5.5k-6k area.
After that happens, I think it will be a great buying opportunity going into 2020. Keep in mind what I have outlined takes MONTHS to transpire and that we could be moving sideways for a while. However, once this all take place, whether we base out at 7k or 5.5k area, I think it will make for a great long term buy opportunity and it will be time to HODL all the coins. Want to know what I will be buying? and how I do it? check out the site I put together.
Happy trading and hodling,
TradingView – Part 1
TradingView – Part 2
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