PlanB: $1 Million Bitcoin (BTC) Model Not Built to Last – Plus Ripple, XRP, Litecoin, Ethereum Updates
From the durability of one of the most popular Bitcoin price predictions to the push for private Litecoin transactions, here’s a look at some of the stories breaking in the world of crypto.
The widely-followed analyst who first applied the stock-to-flow ratio to Bitcoin says the model is not built to last forever.
The model, which tracks the circulating supply of an asset against the amount of new supply hitting the market has proved remarkably accurate for tracking Bitcoin’s past price action.
Using the model, the outlook from the anonymous analyst PlanB indicates BTC could hit $100,000 sometime around the year 2021 and break $1 million around 2025.
But in a new series of tweets, PlanB says he’ll be happy if the model maintains accuracy for the next two to three more halvings, which is the equivalent of about 4.5 to 8.5 years.
After that, he says all bets are off due to how difficult it is to predict the future value of the US dollar and other assets.
I normally don't deploy statistical models 120+ years out into the future. I would be happy if the model holds for 1 or 2 or maybe 3 more halvings. Especially since BTC is measured in $ .. who knows what happens with $ if the FED keeps doing more QE (money printing).
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 31, 2019
In a new blog post on Medium, crypto analysts from Dragonfly Research hypothesize that Ethereum will never face another possible fork. Authors Leland Lee and Haseeb Qureshi argue that by applying the principles of game theory, Ethereum escapes the possibility of a split because of the “inherent fragility” of decentralized finance (DeFi).
The authors write,
“Were DeFi operators to not move in lockstep, the decentralized financial ecosystem would be thrown into pandemonium. This is a classic game theory situation: the incentives are overwhelmingly in favor of coordination, so all of DeFi is forced to move together.”
The post sparked a debate on Twitter with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin weighing in on the issue of “decentralized” apps that appear to be controlled by their operators.
I actually agree this is a problem, and that the ability to survive both sides of a chaotic chain split could be a useful litmus test for the stability of a claimed-to-be decentralized app.
(Not that I want chaotic chain splits of ethereum to happen; more the thought experiment)
— Vitalik Non-giver of Ether (@VitalikButerin) October 31, 2019
Qureshi clarifies how he sees events unfolding in the event of a potential split.
“I don’t mean to imply that that large fiat coin operators LEAD the decision. Just that everyone’s incentive is to stay together.”
You can check out the post on Medium here.
Ripple and XRP
The first video in a new series called “The XRP Drop” is out, featuring interviews with the Ripple-backed company XRPL Labs.
The series offers a look inside the company that’s developing new products on the XRP Ledger including a mobile payments app, a decentralized exchange and a cold storage operating system.
In a new interview, Litecoin creator Charlie Lee talks about why the platform has decided to use MimbleWimble to power confidential transactions.
Lee says his main focus is on ensuring that the transaction history of a particular Litecoin does not affect its value.
“From my point of view, I see it less about privacy and more about fungibility. So I think in order for Bitcoin and Litecoin to be usable money, it really has to be fungible in the sense that whichever Bitcoin or Litecoin you spend should be equal to every other coin you have. When you go buy coffee and pull out a $20 bill from your wallet, it doesn’t matter which one you have. You don’t have to think about picking one that has less history on it, because they’re all exactly the same to you and the merchant.
And that’s something that’s not true for Litecoin, and it’s something that I want to improve because I think in order for it to be really useful as money it has to be fungible. And privacy is kind of a requirement for fungibility. Because if the transaction history is not private, then you can always censor the different transactions, which makes the coin not fungible.”