Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten says he believes Bitcoin is firmly on a long-term trajectory that will bring the leading cryptocurrency to $100,000.
In a new episode of DataDash, Merten takes a bird’s-eye look at Bitcoin’s boom and bust cycles over the years. By looking at the long-term logarithmic chart of the BraveNewCoin Liquid Index (BLX), which provides a reliable USD price of Bitcoin based on real-time trading data, Merten sees a likely timeline for the next bull run.
“If we take a look at the previous three clear cycles that we had here in cryptocurrency markets, we can generally take into note that we’ve seen an expansion of about a year added to each and every cycle… The first cycle was around 11 to 12 months, in this case, for Bitcoin.
Afterwards, from the bottom to the high, just like we did with the previous cycle, 24 months… With the third cycle, we have a 35-month period from bottom to top, roughly give or take almost three years…
There’s no guarantee that history is going to repeat itself exactly. There might be some big discrepancies this time around with the macro environment. The halving might play out differently. But if we take a look here of the logarithmic growth curves and take into mind the significant lows and the significant resistance, we actually are going to line up quite nicely here to a top of $100,000, give or take – it might not be exactly even –sometime in 2022.”
The DataDash founder offers two key fundamental catalysts that can drive Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000.
“We haven’t even seen the economic ramifications of the halving event and the continued macro environment going into a higher state of fear. These are the things that can drive Bitcoin to that valuation…
I believe pretty consciously in this case that $100,000 is quite reasonable. Bitcoin at over $1 trillion market cap is going to be relatively reasonable in an environment where there’s money fleeing from global bonds, from global currencies, from equities or property markets as we enter into a longer drawn out bear market through a potential depression.
That’s a very, very conservative ask, in my opinion, for a new emerging digital gold for Millennials and Gen Z. A key point here is to focus on these longer-term time frames. To be patient. This is going to be a long journey, but it’s going to be a fun one.”
Although the future of the global economy is far from certain, Merten says he believes that in the long run, Bitcoin will benefit from the increasing intervention in the economy from the US Federal Reserve as investors look outside of equities for assets with a fixed monetary supply.
“Unlike the Fed which says, ‘We are going to do ‘x” and [then] they do ‘y’, Bitcoin has been chugging along. If you need to process a transaction, you can do it. If you want to know that your money is going to be fixed in a system or your purchasing power is fixed into a system that isn’t going to change the rules every five minutes, Bitcoin does that… Bitcoin is the clear winner here.”
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