The first analyst to apply the stock-to-flow ratio to Bitcoin (BTC) says there are two big factors driving his decision to remain anonymous.
In a new interview with In Gold We Trust, the quantitative strategist known as PlanB says his day job is a key reason why he doesn’t want his true name out in the open.
“I am both an analyst and investor at an investment office of a large institutional investor in the Netherlands. As a team we invest USD 50+ billion AUM. My main focus is on mortgages, loans, and structured finance. I do not want my employer to have any negative consequences from my Bitcoin ‘hobby’. Also, I consider it good operational security to remain anonymous.”
PlanB quickly emerged as one of the most closely-watched analysts in crypto last year, when he showed that the stock-to-flow model, which divides the total supply of an asset by its annual production, forecasts that BTC is on track to hit $1 million by early 2028.
He says the fact that his model doesn’t account for the importance of overall demand for Bitcoin – which is one of the biggest criticisms of stock-to-flow – is irrelevant.
“People that use the demand argument probably don’t have a statistics or investing background. The argument is theoretically right (price is a function of supply and demand) but there are a lot of famous pricing models that do not use demand – or supply – as input and still give good predictions. Some examples of this are the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and Black & Scholes model, as both price with only risk/volatility (standard deviation, etc.). The demand argument is really based on ignorance.”
The analyst says anyone waiting for him to reveal his identity shouldn’t hold their breath, as he has no interest in becoming a public figure.
PlanB is also responding to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, blasted by leaders in the crypto community, which concludes BTC is not a viable investment. He says Goldman’s line of thinking is similar to the firm he works for, and shows it’s still early days for the crypto markets.
And it is not just GS. GS presentation is how my employer and many other institutions look at bitcoin: too volatile, a bubble, tulip mania (of course no log scale..), can be hacked (refer to QuadrigaCX..), ponzi, darknet, illicit, ransomware, money laundering etc. Long way to go!
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 27, 2020