Popular trader and crypto analyst Luke Martin is analyzing a massive Bitcoin price prediction from a veteran Wall Street fund manager.
Scott Minerd, the global head of investment at the $270 billion asset management giant Guggenheim Investments, says BTC should be valued at $400,000.
Minerd says his firm’s analysis is based on “scarcity and relative valuation such as things like gold as a percentage of GDP.”
In a new video, Martin points to BTC’s total supply cap of 21 million coins and governmental policy choices, which he says both lend credence to that theory.
“If you use gold’s market cap as a target and use that as a relative valuation model, if Bitcoin does eat into gold’s market cap over the next 100 years, then I actually do think the $400,000 price target that Scott Minerd gave – and I imagine a lot of other soon-to-be Bitcoiners will be giving – actually does make sense, especially when you account that store-of-value assets are much bigger than just gold.
Remember, people store value in collectibles, they store value in fine art, they store value in expensive cars. Billionaires, millionaires, they have Ferraris, they have Porsches, and sometimes they buy them to drive them around, but a lot of times they buy them as a store of value. You buy scarce items because they retain their value well in a world where we have infinite supply of fiat money. We continue printing money. Scarce assets continue to go up as the money supply goes up.”
Martin says the institutional players entering the Bitcoin space, including large firms like MicroStrategy, hedge funds and insurance companies, are not buying Bitcoin for a 5-10% trade. They’re buying because they’re betting that Bitcoin will eat into gold’s market cap.
“A really simple model of using the target market cap of gold and what the supply of Bitcoin is, dividing the market cap by the supply, gives you the $400,000 – it’s not entirely unreasonable. It might take a long time to get there, and I would even say it’s a good possibility in my lifetime. So don’t go out there and YOLO long 100x, don’t go tell your friends that Luke said it has to go to $400,000, next week or next month, remember this is a long-term thing.”
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