Prominent crypto analysts PlanB and Willy Woo say that Bitcoin is just getting started on its journey towards mass adoption.
In a three-way interview on The Investor’s Podcast Network, on-chain data expert Woo reveals that by his estimations, whales are heavily accumulating BTC while retail investors are just getting started, indicating that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a bull market.
“What we expect right now is that eventually retail will come in and that’s what we’re seeing right now… We’re seeing this quiet accumulation of even more whales come in and we’re seeing the very first hints of retail. And when retail comes in, you’ll see the inventory on spot exchanges increase. Now they increase because retail are small holders and they tend to store their coins on the Coinbases of this world.
In the later phases of this bull market, you’ll see the inventory on these exchanges increase and we’re still not seeing that yet. So we’re all really early in this phase.
It’s just mind blowing how different it is in that the length of the accumulation off of exchanges is so long and so deep. And secondly, the amount of whales which are holders of more than 1,000 coins, so around $35 million, $40 million of Bitcoin upwards, they’re exploding in numbers right now and we’ve never seen such a sharp climb in that species of holders.”
Woo goes on to explain that, although the cycle may still be in its infancy, the trader has not quite seen a bull market like this one, predicting that Bitcoin will likely never dip below $30,000 again.
“It’s an incredible bull market this one. Technical traders are looking at the price saying ‘This thing’s overheated.’ I’ve never seen a move like this in my career inside Bitcoin where the price goes a sheer vertical wall yet the fundamentals of the buying, they’re supporting that and there’s no real path right now for us to go down to – some people are saying $22,000 – my modeling [says that the] bear floor right now is around $30,500 I think. And that’s based on the amount of sheer capital that’s coming into the market.”
PlanB echoes Woo’s bullish outlook, hypothesizing that there is likely at least half a year left in the current bull cycle.
“I totally agree with Willy that we’re in a bull market and in the early phase so we have a long way to go if you ask me. We’re in the bull market since November-December, so we have at least a half year to go.”
The traders’ targets for BTC this cycle also indicate that the flagship cryptocurrency has plenty of room to run this cycle.
Woo says that his mean reversion model shows BTC at least doubling by the time it reaches a top.
“This is a mean reversion model. Fancy words for saying that everything tends towards averages… Right now, when I’m looking at it, it’s $102,000 and it tends to curve upwards. So we’ve still got a bit of room to move.”
In a Twitter post, PlanB makes two predictions using the stock-to-flow model.
#bitcoin price track after 2020 halving is between 2012 and 2016 tracks. I added S2F ($100K) and S2FX ($288K) model targets. Targets are average prices, actual BTC price will oscillate around targets. If 2021 bull market follows 2017 then $100K it is, if we follow 2013 .. $288K? pic.twitter.com/RdRP7VUqqF
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 5, 2021
PlanB says that if the current cycle behaves like the 2013 cycle, then a price target of $300,000 BTC is in the cards. If it behaves like the 2017 cycle, then $100,000 BTC is the key level instead.
“It already tells a lot. There’s a lot of people thinking that cycles are going to be longer and lower, but well, this data point shows it’s right in the middle of the last two halvings and not lower, so that’s one point. The other point is the chart also shows that after the initial bull market, it will sort of stabilize at an equilibrium after the bull market so it goes down and it stabilizes. For 2013, that was around – if you compare to current price levels – around the $300,000 level. If you look at the more current 2017 bull run, that sort of stopped at the $100,00 level and I find those very interesting of course because those are exactly the price levels of my stock to flow model.”
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