Veteran crypto trader Tone Vays is weighing in on the state of Bitcoin (BTC) and whether or not its recent strength is just a head fake before a bigger leg down.
In a new strategy session, the analyst says that he’s open to the possibility that Bitcoin won’t see another low this year. Vays says, however, that Bitcoin’s weekly chart is still signaling weakness, and the likelihood of a new low still looms over BTC.
“As of right now I have significantly raised my probability that this bottom [$28,675] is going to be the low for the year, basically. But raising that probability and having that probability above 50% are very different things, and right now, I still think there’s a slightly greater probability than 50% that the price of Bitcoin will still fall below the low of June 21st. Not that much higher than 50%, but slightly higher.”
Last week, Vays said that a “capitulation day” was coming for Bitcoin as it traded within a bearish descending triangle pattern. The analyst added that his prediction could be invalidated if Bitcoin manages to climb above its 50-day moving average.
“It’s still not enough to declare the end of the mini-bear market. It’s just not enough because we did not fall low enough for capitulation. Now it is certainly possible that the price of Bitcoin is about to start to rise significantly… There’s definitely a bullish trade here, and anyone that has taken on the bullish trade already has probably done well, and there’s no reason to sell out of your bullish trade. This can certainly reverse us past the moving average and then we can reevaluate the situation.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $32,437, up 0.8% in the last 24 hours according to CoinGecko.
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