On-chain analyst Willy Woo says that pronounced bull and bear cycles will become a thing of the past for Bitcoin.
In a new interview with news personality Natalie Brunell, Woo says that the typical four-year cycles that most analysts observe in Bitcoin will be replaced by a “drunken walk” upward, much like the S&P 500 or other major stock indices.
“The schedule really is for this bull market to peter out around December onwards, and currently, the on-chain data is saying otherwise…Â
Now that we’re approaching our fourth quarter the data looks quite different from any cycle we’ve seen before, and people keep thinking that we’ll template this bull/bear cycle to past ones and if you’d look on-chain structurally, everything looks different…
I think it’s a fair chance that we’ll not go into what we think which is a traditional Bitcoin bear market, which generally is a huge retrace of maybe 80% of its value, and it also takes about nine months to a year to shake out. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and I think now judging from the maturity of this market and the impact of the different parts of the demand and supply from different parts of the ecosystem, we’re breaking out of this four-year cycle which is really contingent on the network being programed to halve.”
The Bitcoin four-year cycle suggests that BTC goes through a massive run-up on year one, followed by a brutal bear market, and then an accumulation phase prior to recovery and continuation.
Woo says he sees Bitcoin as being in its ‘last cycle’, before entering a new era where Bitcoin no longer has obvious bull and bear markets.
“I don’t think we’re going to have like what we see these normal four-year cycles again. I’m calling this the ‘last cycle.’ And people will think that’s very somber and bearish, but no I mean like, this thing does a drunk walk of ups and downs, trending upwards as it finds its adoption for indefinite amounts of time. These four-year cycles are gone. That’s what I think might be happening, which is a big revelation because that’s against the expectation of the majority think, so we’ll see if that plays out.”
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