Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s future market cycles will be defined by two key trends.
The trader tells his 553,000 YouTube subscribers about a chart that tracks historical BTC market cycles from their respective bottoms. He believes the chart is likely to reveal a lot about future patterns for the largest crypto asset by market cap.
“We looked at this chart years and years ago, and our speculation was two things… First of all, we would expect we’re going to have diminishing returns. Second of all, we would expect we’re going to have lengthening cycles. Now, these two theories are not mutually exclusive, you can have one without the other, and if $64k does end up being the market cycle top, then rather than having lengthening cycles, we just had diminishing returns.
Now I’m still speculating that the cycle will ultimately lengthen and that we will ultimately take out $64k before we get to the next halving and whatnot. I think we’ll be able to put in new all-time highs if not this year, [then] next year, and I do think we’ll continue moving along the way. I don’t think we’re headed for a three-year bear market/accumulation phase. I’m not thinking that we’re heading towards that at this point.”
Bitcoin is trading at $41,714 at time of writing and is down nearly 15% over the past month, according to CoinGecko.
Cowen says that so far, this cycle doesn’t resemble what happened in 2017 given that Bitcoin hasn’t reached a new all-time high since April. Bitcoin surged to record highs in 2017, followed by a market crash in 2018.
“If anything, it looks more like 2013. This has been our argument all along, that it seems like it’s a stretched-out version of 2013.
“We had this lull in the market in 2013. We’re getting that same type of lull now. And then ultimately I hope we go in another leg. Do we have to go to $300k two months from now? Absolutely not. Just because that [steep run up] is exactly what happened in 2013, does not mean it has to happen exactly like that this year.”
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