Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo is unveiling the critical factors keeping Bitcoin (BTC) from grinding upward and printing new all-time highs.
In a new Coin Stories interview, Woo says that he’s looking at a particular on-chain metric that tells him Bitcoin is not yet ready to rally.
“If we were to look at where we sit in terms of what I call supply shock which… I would say the ratio of coins held by these really strong holders versus more speculative hands, we’re not at the ratios that we saw in the first and second quarter before May. We’re actually climbing up there but not at the same levels where we last touched the $64,000 range. So structurally, you could say we’re not as bullish on-chain.”
Another factor delaying BTC’s move to higher prices is the emergence of Bitcoin futures exchange traded funds (ETFs). According to the on-chain analyst, the Bitcoin ETFs are driving investors to hold derivative contracts instead of buying BTC.
“We’ve also had a lot of changes with the ETFs being approved so those ETFs are futures based. They are not actually buying Bitcoin. They are actually buying futures contracts to get exposure to the price.”
Lastly, Woo says that the greed and euphoria surrounding the Bitcoin market are contributing to BTC’s stalled ascent.
“The other thing is everyone is very, very bullish right now, and whenever everyone’s bullish, it’s very difficult for the price to run upwards because you get a whole lot of speculative long positions in the markets and that makes it very, very profitable to take the other side and short it and prevent the price rise and effectively take out the long positions. The majority is very seldom right.”
According to Woo, Bitcoin needs to get in a position where market participants are unsure of the trend as it opens up the window for a potential surge.
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