Closely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is outlining what he thinks is the worst possible scenario for Bitcoin as BTC struggles to reclaim the $60,000 level.
In a new strategy session, Cowen takes a look at what he calls the “bull market support band,” which is a combination of the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
According to the analyst, once BTC successfully retests the bull market support band, it historically never goes below that price ever again. Since BTC last found support at the band when it bounced from $40,000 in October, Cowen says he doesn’t see Bitcoin ever going below there again.
“Every time we hold it as support, we tend to not go below it, at least not on the weekly time frame. So that makes me believe that there’s a good chance that Bitcoin will not go below $40,000, because if it does, then I would argue that at point something is different, and it’s not looking that great.”
Cowen also notes that Bitcoin’s last major correction that took BTC from $52,000 to about $40,000 was a 25% drop. For Bitcoin to repeat the same 25% correction, the king crypto would bottom out at roughly $51,500, which is right at the bull market support band.
“For now, we have the bull market support band that hopefully will help us hold the line. That’s where the bulls like to come out and hold the line. Even if we go below it, there have been instances in the past where we get right back above it the next week. If you want my opinion on the market, I think that there’s a lot of reasons people are bearish, there’s a lot of reasons people are bullish, but you take everything into consideration, I think that the market is leaning macro bullish not macro bearish.”
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