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The Daily Hodl
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Fidelity Macro Strategist Says Bitcoin Has Drawn a Major Line in the Sand at $40,000 – Here’s What It Means

by Daily Hodl Staff
January 15, 2022
in Bitcoin

Jurrien Timmer, a macro strategist at financial giant Fidelity, says that Bitcoin (BTC) may have found a new level of support that’s 33% higher than previously believed.

In a thread to his 80,000 Twitter followers, Timmer says that a little-known metric called “dormancy flow” might be the key to pegging Bitcoin’s bottom at $40,000.

“A few days ago I made the case that 40k could be the new 30k for Bitcoin, based on the rising intrinsic value from my S-curve model.

I just came across an indicator that further suggests this: Dormancy flow. It has reached the kind of oversold levels seen at past bottoms.”

Timmer provides a chart that tracks data since Bitcoin’s 2011 inception in which the price of BTC ranges within the demand S-curve.

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

Concerning analytics firm Glassnode’s term “dormancy flow” and how it factors in time elapsed between coin transactions, Timmer says,

“To me, this is further evidence that 40k could be a major line in the sand, much like 30k was last year.”

The tweet thread follows on the heels of a previous post where Timmer says in light of Federal Reserve policies and rising inflation, Bitcoin appears to be oversold at $40,000.

“Is $40k the new $30k? The Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation has had broad impact.

With the liquidity-driven momentum plays under pressure, it’s not a total shock that crypto has corrected.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

The strategist concludes by saying that he believes Bitcoin remains a store-of-value asset just like gold.

“I like to compare Bitcoin to that other more traditional store-of-value, gold.

Here we see that the BTC/gold ratio has fallen back to the breakout zone from last year.

Technically the ratio is moderately oversold.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

At time of writing, Bitcoin is up a fraction on the day and trading for $43,369.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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