Veteran crypto trader Tone Vays is updating his Bitcoin (BTC) forecast in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike which saw BTC experience volatile price action.
In a new strategy session, Vays tells his 120,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin’s near-instant 3% rise from $38,766 to $39,935 yesterday was most likely a dead cat bounce.
The trader first looks at four-day Bitcoin candles where Bitcoin remained down from a weekly peak of $40,183 on April 28th. Vays weighs technical analysis (TA) versus fundamentals as he says,
“I’m not putting that much stock into this orange arrow, I don’t think it’s all that critical, definitely not like this one was [late January 2022], so we wait and see.
Right now this is looking like a nice dead cat bounce and most likely will turn the price of Bitcoin down.
All TA is pointing to lower prices. Fundamentally, I’m always bullish on Bitcoin and it can break out at any minute, but TA is telling me that this [green candle up] is just a dead cat bounce and we should have one more critical up.”
Moving on to daily candles, Vays highlights $41,000 as a key level of resistance that he doesn’t think BTC is likely to break past.
“TA on the daily, I don’t find this to be anything of significance. I think there’s major resistance at the $41,000 area. I remain bearish in this daily chart as well.
The CMF [Chaikin Money Flow] is not all that impressive. The funding rate… look how much time has accumulated down there… It’s pretty much break-even right now.
It’s neither bullish nor bearish at the moment.”
CMF stands for Chaikin Money Flow, a metric measuring the volume-weighted average of accumulation and distribution over a set period.
After topping out at $39,946 yesterday, Bitcoin witnessed a dramatic 7.95% drop to as low as $36,770 earlier today.
At time of writing, BTC is down 5.6% over the last 24 hours and valued at $37,020.
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