A closely tracked crypto strategist is looking at Bitcoin’s previous bear markets in an effort to predict the end of BTC’s current downtrend.
Pseudonymous analyst Rager tells his 207,500 Twitter followers that the length of Bitcoin’s 2014 and 2018 bear cycles suggests that BTC has a long a way to go before it can carve a bottom.
“The more you look at prior BTC price history, the more one can think it’s not the bottom. After 190 days from the all-time high, Bitcoin still had another 150 to 200 days until it hit bottom last couple of cycles (red box). If time is any indicator, could be another six to eight months.”
In terms of price, Rager says that he’s keeping an eye on the 200-week moving average (MA), which he notes has kept Bitcoin afloat during the 2014 and 2018 downtrends.
“If Bitcoin price does drop and bounce at the 200-week MA like previous bear markets – consider that a good thing.
It would only be a drop of -68% from the highs. Previous bear markets had -84%+ pullbacks.
-84% pullback in this bear market would be near $11,000 for BTC.”
In the short term, Rager believes will continue to mirror the strength or weakness of the US equity market.
“Kind of a waste of time to be staring at the BTC chart when you should just be looking at the SPX chart.
Clear rejection, good times.
Expect a choppy weekend as always for Bitcoin with limited upside (fakeouts) until equities have a reversal.”
Bitcoin is changing hands for $29,325 at time of writing.
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