A popular cryptocurrency analyst is singling out one metric suggesting a negative outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) over the coming weeks.
In a new strategy session, the anonymous host of InvestAnswers tells his 439,000 YouTube subscribers that based on Bitcoin options data, the bearish bets outweigh the bullish ones for the contracts ending July 29th.
InvestAnswers says that based on data from crypto options exchange Deribit, the puts volume expecting Bitcoin to dive to $25,000 and below has reached $165 million while the calls expecting BTC to hit $30,000 by late July are $63 million.
“The short-term outlook for July you can see here some calls, about $33 million on $40,000, which is a small bump. But a lot of very negative bets.
You’ve got $29 million on a $15,000 Bitcoin, $60 million on a $20,000 Bitcoin and $76 million on a $25,000 Bitcoin. And of course $30 million on where we are right now as insurance.
So this is extremely negative. Very, very concerning that people do expect another wick down or another double bottom.”
The crypto analyst also says options data shows that over the longer term, there is a more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin.
According to the crypto analyst, the call volumes betting on Bitcoin hitting $70,000 and above by December have reached $243 million while the puts volumes expecting Bitcoin at $30,000 and below stand at $95 million.
“As of December 2022, you can see here big bets. We have $64 million in Deribit bet on $100,000 Bitcoin by December, $101 million on an $80,000 Bitcoin by December and $78 million on a $78,000 Bitcoin.
And a couple of puts, $30,000 Bitcoin – $34 million, which is pretty much a little bit higher than where we are right now and $61 million on a $25,000 Bitcoin.
Remember people place these bets to protect their bags as well, buying insurance. But not a lot of put activity compared to the bullish activity onto the far right.”
InvestAnswers says that between now and late July, Bitcoin is likely to exhibit choppy movements before recovering after the Federal Reserve offers more clarity on monetary policy.
“Expect bumpiness for the next, say eight to 12 weeks. Once we get through August, get some clarity from the Fed, because you know the Fed has handcuffs on us right now, then we will be able to bounce and move forward.”
Bitcoin is trading for $29,452 at time of writing.
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