Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says three metrics indicate Bitcoin (BTC) could see a price bounce in June.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 746,000 YouTube subscribers the first metric pointing to a Bitcoin rally is a correcting US dollar currency index.
[adinserter block="1"]“We know that the US dollar currency index, when it’s moving higher in a parabolic rally, we know Bitcoin goes down. We’ve seen this many times in the past. And furthermore, if we just simply pull it up, you can see that over the last several months, the dollar has been in a parabolic rally.
However, recently, you can see it’s pulled back a bit. Now that does not – unfortunately – mean that the dollar rally is over. It could just be taking a break for a while. But certainly looking at the dollar have this pullback leads us to believe that risk-on assets could start to do well for a few weeks.”
His second point is that the S&P500 and the Nasdaq have had “pretty strong” bounces off their local bottoms. He notes that crypto has yet to follow those moves.
“The reason, I think, is because we are in a macro risk-off time, and so I would argue cryptocurrencies are inherently riskier than equities, so equities are the first to move when it looks like we might be getting at least a few weeks of some relief, and then as long as that sustains, then crypto will kind of be next in line to go up as well.”
He also notes the 90-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is “lower than it’s ever been.”
The Fear and Greed Index measures market sentiment with values ranging from 0 to 100. Values between 0 and 24 indicate extreme fear is prevalent while scores between 25 and 49 indicate fear. A score between 51 and 74 indicates market greed, while a score of over 75 indicates extreme greed.
Cowen says the Index’s 90-day EMA is currently at 23.56, which he says also hints at the possibility of a bounce.
“Why is that significant? We’ve never seen that before. The 90-day EMA of the Fear and Greed [Index] is lower than it’s ever been.”
Bitcoin is trading for $31,623 at time of writing, up more than 7% in the past 24 hours.
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