Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal believes crypto markets have likely been through the worst of it, and that a turn in macro conditions may be around the corner.
The macro guru tells his 966,300 Twitter followers that the low for crypto is “probably” in, citing major gains since the Three Arrows Capital saga began.
“Crypto – Is the low in? My view is on balance, probably.Â
I also think the macro turn is very close too. Have bond yields topped? Probably.
Returns since the panic 3AC liquidation:
BTC +24%
ETH +71%
SOL +64%
AVAX +77%
DOT +26%
AAVE +116%
UNISWAP +131%
XRP +29%”
Looking closely at Ethereum, Pal also points out that non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are on the rise yet again on the leading smart contract platform.
“NFTs are rising in ETH volumes and floor prices are rising too for good, trusted projects.
Bottoms in crypto are not usually a straight line higher and there is often a big gut check at some point or sideways range for a few months after an initial recovery.
Let’s see…”
However, the RealVision CEO says that a rising USD has the potential to act as a wild card for much of the financial landscape. He notes that the ADXY index, which pins Asian currencies against the US dollar, is close to collapsing, which suggests a further soaring USD and more pressure on risk assets like crypto. He says the Japanese yen is showing similar weakness.
“Dollar Wrecking Ball
This chart concerns me… $/KRW [South Korean won] With the Yen in free fall, the Yuan will follow over time and the Won is not yet priced for it and is a hugely leveraged economy…
“And the ADXY (Asian currency DXY) is VERY close to breaking down. This has got a global dollar crisis written all over it.Â
If there is a wild card in all of this economic mess, the dollar is it… on the plus side, it’s HUGELY deflationary if it happens.”
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