Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes is predicting a massive rally for Ethereum (ETH) if two possibilities align.
In a new blog post, Hayes says that one catalyst that could ignite a strong rally for Ethereum is the success of its upcoming switch to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, which is scheduled to launch in September.
The highly anticipated update will enable Ethereum’s mainnet to merge with its Beacon Chain, which already runs the POS system. The Merge, which will give rise to Ethereum 2.0, aims to address the network’s scalability issues by setting the stage for future upgrades.
Should Ethereum’s upgrade turns out to be a success, Hayes says that another factor that could serve as a tailwind for ETH is the Federal Reserve once again adopting loose monetary policies.
“Fed Pivot + Successful Ethereum Merge (i.e., what I am speculating will happen, and the best-case scenario for ETH). In November 2021, the Fed was printing money, shitcoins were surging, and attention started shifting to the bullish narrative surrounding an upcoming 2022 Ethereum merge. Therefore, I will use $5,000, the psychological barrier Ether fell just short of at that time, as my price target for this scenario.”
At time of writing, ETH is swapping hands for $1,728. A move to Hayes’ bullish target suggests an upside potential of about 200% for the leading smart contract platform.
In the event that the Fed maintains a tight monetary policy and Ethereum undergoes a successful transition to PoS, Hayes says that the second-largest crypto asset could appreciate to $3,562.
In a third scenario where Ethereum’s transition to PoS fails and the Fed maintains tight monetary policy, Hayes says that the price of ETH would fall significantly from current levels.
“No free money and no assistance from [Ethereum co-founder] Archangel Vitalik [Buterin] takes us back to the dark ages. That would be the recent low of $1,081 –  which is my price prediction for this scenario.”
In a fourth scenario where Ethereum’s transition to PoS fails and the Fed loosens its monetary policies, Hayes says that ETH would fall slightly to the $1,600 level.
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