Quantitative crypto analyst Plan B says that Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading below the realized price and the 200-week moving average, an indicator that tells if the top coin is in a bull or bear market.
This is only the eighth time that the cryptocurrency breached the historical level since its inception.
Plan B tells his 1.8 million Twitter followers that Bitcoin is also way below the projected trajectory based on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model as it hovers at $20,000.
“Bitcoin below 200-week moving average AND below realized price…
Bitcoin August close $20,059.”
The analyst says that the trendline suggests that the weak-hand investors who lack the resources or conviction to hold their investments have already capitulated and sold off their holdings.
While the current downturn has some semblance with the bear market in 2015 when Bitcoin tanked but eventually recovered, Plan B says that the situation now is different in that seven years ago, BTC’s realized price managed to stay above the 200-WMA.
“Some compare the current situation with 2015 and conclude that we will stay low/blue for months. One big difference: in 2015 realized price (grey line) was still 2x above 200 week moving average (black line). Currently realized is below 200WMA, i.e. weak hands have already sold.”
He is optimistic though that the bearish outlook for Bitcoin will eventually change.
“This will not stay blue forever. Macro and markets may be different, but humans don’t change, human behavior is driven by greed (red) and fear (blue).”
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