Popular crypto analyst Nicholas Merten says that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is most likely setting up for another collapse to new bear market lows.
Merten warns his 516,000 Youtube subscribers that the current bear market hasn’t carried on as long as previous cycles, nor has the price of BTC dipped as low.
He says that while Bitcoin bear markets tend to get less severe over time, BTC still hasn’t matured enough to get away with just a 74% correction.
“Even though as time progresses with each bear market, we see weaker and weaker bear markets, I want to signify here that we’re likely not going to drop all the way from an 84% correction, which we had in the last bear market in 2018, all the way to only a 74% correction over seven months.”
Merten says the argument could be made that the bull market ended in April of 2021, which would theoretically put the end of the bear market slightly closer in the future. However, the analyst says he’s taking the position that the bear market started in November, when both BTC and the stock market made their last highs.
Merten predicts another leg to the Bitcoin bear market that puts BTC near the $13,000 level.
“If people are saying that the bottom we set in June was the low here, we’re talking about a 74% correction in price, and on top of that only seven months of a decline. Some people might argue again that we actually set in the top back here, it’s been 14 months. And while I would say there’s a fair argument to be made for that, altcoin valuations did very well in this secondary run up and we hit into a new all time high at around a $3 trillion market cap.
So I think that the November highs make sense because that’s not only where crypto topped out, but also equities. So at a minimum if you are in that camp, if you’re betting on the best case scenario, you should at a minimum be looking for an 80% decline. Now, interestingly enough here, this takes us much lower here towards around $13,000.”
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