Widely followed economist Alex Krüger says there’s an under-the-radar indicator flashing that has historically signaled huge bouts of volatility in Bitcoin (BTC).
Krüger tells his 146,200 Twitter followers that he has his eye on the Bitcoin volatility index (BVOL), which measures BTC’s volatility on a 30-day annualized basis using the time weighted average price (TWAP).
According to Krüger, BVOL closing below 25 has historically preceded huge moves.
“Every time BVOL closed below 25, an explosive Bitcoin move soon followed. Twice up, once down (Nov 2018).”
The economist says that Thursday’s consumer price index (CPI) announcement could be the fundamental catalyst that sparks Bitcoin’s next wave of volatility in either direction. Inflation is forecasted to come in at 8.1% year-on-year this week, so a reading significantly higher or lower could trigger volatility in BTC.
According to Krüger, Bitcoin’s technicals appear positive, with BTC attempting to make a break against a nearly year-long diagonal resistance line.
“BTC looking good, everybody looking at the same levels.”
The economist also points out the seemingly tight correlation between crypto markets and equities as of late. He shares a chart showing a correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.
“This is incredible. Maybe crypto traders should start hedging their longs not with ETH or BTC perps but with Nasdaq futures.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $19,413, trading mostly flat for nearly a month.
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