Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is examining the historical patterns of Bitcoin bear markets to estimate when BTC could bottom out.
In a new strategy session, Cowen says it would be reasonable to expect a bottoming scenario similar to that of 2018, where BTC’s price made a series of slightly higher lows before sharply capitulating to new lows to reach its floor.
“So far in 2022 making the case for the bottom has not really served anyone well, and that’s why at the beginning of the year we said, ‘Look, don’t spend too much mental energy trying to call a bottom in 2022…’
When you’re in the bear market, you just give it a little more time and we tend to go lower.Â
If you were to follow a similar type of pattern here – we could sort of extrapolate out the 200-day simple moving average if it were to continue on down on its current trajectory, where might it cross?”
Based on the historical comparison, Cowen says that a potential capitulation event could occur around December 25th of this year, where Bitcoin reaches its lowest point before preparing for another bull market.
“You could see that it would cross somewhere in late December, right around Christmas, December 25th, December 26th, December 27th, around the holidays is where it would cross.Â
I can’t really say for sure, obviously, if it’s going to play out in the exact same fashion but I will say this. This bear market has been going on for over a year now, and historically, bear markets for Bitcoin last about a year. The one in 2014 lasted 14 months, and the one in 2018 lasted about 12 months, so in that context you could argue that we’re well within the window as to when bottoms typically occur in terms of time.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is swapping hands for $16,608, a fractional dip on the day.
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