Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says he believes that 2023 is going to be a positive year for risk assets and cryptocurrencies.
In a new interview on the Overpriced JPEGs YouTube channel, the macro guru says he believes Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will rise in 2023, albeit with some chop and unpredictability due to policy changes from the Federal Reserve.
Pal also looks at how market cycles of the past reacted to signals from the Fed.
“This is how I’m framing it this time around. So 2018 was the last time the Federal Reserve stopped raising rates. They didn’t cut until I think it was August 2019. So what happened was the moment the Fed went on hold, the markets went on an upside rampage. They were down kind of 30% and then it recovered, so not wildly dissimilar to now.
If I look out over the next year, well the S&P did about 10%, Nasdaq did about 14%, [tech stocks like ARK] did about 18%, so that was good. Bitcoin did a 100% and that’s after it had gone up 400%…
So I think it’s going to be a positive year but that kind of choppy year where one minute you think, ‘Oh my God, it’s going straight to the high,’ then it’s like ‘Oh my God, it’s gone back down we’re all gonna die,’ and then it stabilizes. I think we’ll look back and go ‘Okay, we survived, and we actually made some money.’”
Pal also comments on the overall macro environment, saying that he believes we are in the midst of an “ordinary recession.”
“I think [what] we’ve actually got here is a very ordinary recession driven by the Federal Reserve raising rates and prices going up too fast, which means that people can’t buy as much stuff because your wages aren’t going as much and so everything slows down.”
Bitcoin is changing hands for $23,671 at time of writing while Ethereum is moving for $1,629.
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