A high-profile trader who has remained bearish on Bitcoin (BTC) throughout its 2023 rally is breaking his silence after the crypto king’s furious ascent above $30,000.
The psuedonymous analyst Capo says Bitcoin’s recent breakout to $30,000 does not necessarily indicate that BTC has exited its long-term bear trend.
Capo is reiterating his months-long bearish outlook, and says there are more reasons to be negative than positive on what’s next for BTC.
“Congratulations to the bulls that were respectful and were calling for $30,000. My bearish scenario is NOT invalidated yet.
After hours and hours of deep analysis and research, I still see many reasons to be bearish, much more than to be bullish. I’ve already explained here some, and would fully explain the reasoning with all the best intention, as I always do. But I’ve lost the motivation to do so.”
Although he’s bearish on BTC, Capo says he’s focused on betting against other large-cap altcoins including the smart contract protocol Solana (SOL).
“I’ve repeated many times that I’m short on BNB and TRX (now also SOL and AAVE), and I keep adding to the shorts. Find a tweet where I said that I shorted BTC. You won’t find it.”
The crypto trader says trading is still a game of probabilities and adds that a BTC meltdown to $12,000 is still likely, even though Bitcoin bulls have mounted a stampede throughout the year.
“Everything is based on probabilities. The more accurate your analysis, the more precise that probability will be. $30,000 maybe had a 10-20% when we were at $19,000-$20,000 levels. $12,000 was more likely (and still is).
As you see, this probability will never be 100%. That’s why you don’t bet everything, because nothing is sure and this is where variance comes into play. However, in the long run, if you’re on the side of the highest probability, you will win as long as you know how to handle the downswings and stick to your plan controlling the emotions.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $29,965.
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