Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may be repeating a 2019 price formation that led to a market correction.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 783,000 YouTube subscribers that the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) could determine whether Bitcoin will decline as it did in 2019.
He notes that in 2019, BTC dipped below the 100-day SMA after it failed to hold it as support on its first attempt. With Bitcoin now sitting at its 100-day SMA after a correction for the first time in years, Cowen says a similar situation may be playing out.
“So if that’s any indication, then [it] could be in the not too distant future that we go back below [the 100-day SMA] and then we see what’s what and who’s who. Then we figure out, okay, is this a sustained move? Or is it going to fade like 2019?…
So, we’re in this scenario. We had the daily close below the 100-day. We popped back above it, just like 2019, just like 2020. The question is where do you go from here?”
Cowen also says that the 20-day SMA could help forecast if 2023 will see a similar 2019 market correction.
“In 2019, you’ll see that once we had the daily close below the 100-day, we popped back above the 20-day and then we faded back down. Right now, we just popped above the 20-day again. We just popped back above it…
And another thing that’s interesting when you compare these times is the 20-day crossed below the 100-day [in 2019] after we had this daily close below. The 20-day crossed below the 100-day during that rally back up and then it faded back in. In 2020, the 20-day never actually crossed the 100-day moving average. In 2023 it hasn’t crossed it yet. I don’t know if it’s going to.”
Bitcoin is trading for $27,673 at time of writing, up 0.1% during the past 24 hours. 0.1%