Fidelity Investments’ global macro director Jurrien Timmer says that the alternating bullish and bearish cycles of crypto assets are similar to the tech bubble.
Noting that Amazon and Apple are some of the tech stocks that emerged as winners from the tech bubble, Timmer says that the crypto industry is in similar circumstances where some digital assets will rise while others die.
According to Timmer, Bitcoin (BTC) could be the “Apple” of crypto assets.
“Crypto’s boom-bust cycle can be compared to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. The internet bubble took many unqualified stocks to astronomical heights, only to see them lose most or all their value when the bubble burst.
In that process, the long-term winners, such as Apple and Amazon, were separated from the losers. The same has so far proven to be true for crypto. If we assume Bitcoin is the Apple of the digital-asset age, then it could make sense that Bitcoin not only survives the crypto winter but even thrives and takes market share from other digital assets.”
While overlaying Bitcoin’s current chart over Apple and an internet stock index chart from two decades ago, it appears that Timmer is suggesting that BTC has displayed similar price action relative to the two.
“Below, I show an overlay of Bitcoin today vs. Apple two decades ago (left), and Bitcoin vs the Interactive Internet Index (IIX) on the right. The IIX was a now-defunct index of internet stocks that saw its value come full circle from nothing to bubble back to nothing.”
According to Timmer, Apple’s stock recovered after falling significantly during the dot-com bubble and it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will do the same.
“Note that even stalwarts like Apple suffered a large draw-down when the bubble burst but recovered to become a dominant force, while so many also-rans fell into oblivion. Time will tell what’s in store for Bitcoin.”
Apple (AAPL), which ended 2002 at $0.22, is trading at $177.25 as of Wednesday’s close – a gain of about 80,345%.
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