Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets don’t have history on their side right now, and are facing the threat of a hefty correction to the downside.
Cowen tells his 751,000 Twitter followers that even with this year’s rally, BTC is still following the same bear market patterns of 2015 and 2019.
Cowen shares a chart plotting Bitcoin’s current year-to-date return on investment (ROI) overlayed with the average of the same metric for 2015 and 2019.
“I know there have been a lot of calls for ‘This time is different,’ but despite everything, BTC in 2023 is still closely tracking the average of 2015/2019.”
If history plays out the same way, the analyst gives a rough target of $23,000 for Bitcoin, or about a 23% drop from current levels.
“If we hit the lows of the 2015/2019 average, it would mean BTC going back to $23k sometime later this year.”
Cowen shares the same chart for Ethereum (ETH), suggesting the same scenario for the world’s top smart contract platform.
“ETH in 2023 compared to 2019.”
In a recent video update, Cowen said that Bitcoin and altcoins in general were in the same type of bear market bounce that they went through in previous cycles, rather than the beginning of a bull run.
Says Cowen,
“My view is that until proven otherwise, the altcoin market is still no different than what we have previously seen. No different. The alt market bounced against Bitcoin in 2018, it bounced against Bitcoin in 2019, but by the end of 2019, it had come all the way back down to 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap…
[The 2019 altcoin rally] bounced back up to the bull market support band at around 0.53, so that’s right around where the bull market support band is right now, maybe slightly lower, it’s at 0.52, so 52%…
My guess is that the Bitcoin dominance rally will eventually continue. It might be backtesting that 49% to 50% level, but my guess is that it will eventually continue, and it’ll be because net liquidity starts to go back down again.”
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