In a new strategy session, Cowen argues that Cardano has yet to find a bottom by comparing its 2023 price action to its market structure in the second half of 2019 when ADA kept finding new lows.
“The second half of 2019 was probably the hardest part of the cycle [for Cardano] because it wasn’t very exciting. You just watched the altcoin market slowly bleed out.
There were certainly a lot of pumps. I mean, no shortage of pumps. We had tons of them. This one right here [in 2019 from $0.035 to $0.050] was 41%. This one right here [from $0.041 to $0.58] was 40% as well. We had a lot of pumps like that and they ultimately just still got faded.”
According to Cowen, ADA rallied in 2023 similar to 2019 when the token formed double top patterns and then dipped below the bull market support band, which in technical analysis is the combination of the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
“And we saw the market capitulate to new lows [with ADA at $0.077], and even then it did not mark the low for ADA. Because we saw it rally and then fade [to $0.017]. I know it was not a popular view to talk about this. But so far it hasn’t been any different.
We saw ADA put in a low into 2022 [at $0.315] just like it did in 2018 [at $0.028]. We saw it pump in 2023 just like it did here in 2019. You got to two tops here (in 2019) just like we got over here (in 2023). We go below the bull market support band (in July 2019), just like it did (in June 2023). It has played out almost identically, almost identically as last cycle.”
Cowen also is keeping an eye on ADA’s performance against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC).
He highlights how ADA didn’t bottom against Bitcoin until the third quarter of 2019 and stayed at those lows for another six months before rallying, which he says could play out for ADA again in the current market cycle.
“Remember ADA/Bitcoin did not bottom last cycle until Q3 of 2019. And even then, ADA/Bitcoin held those lows really for half a year before trending back up. At this point, we haven’t even convincingly found a level where ADA/Bitcoin is holding those lows.”
ADA is trading for $0.30 at time of writing, down 4.3% during the last 24 hours.
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