In a new interview with Crypto Banter host Ran Neuner, Cowen says that the ETH/BTC pair could drop by more than 50% from its current value of 0.063 BTC, worth $1,828.
Cowen believes that the ETH/BTC pair is likely printing a bearish double-top pattern on the monthly chart, suggesting that holders are using any rally to trade their ETH into BTC.
“To me, this just looks like a massive distribution phase on the Ether/Bitcoin pair, not unlike what we saw last cycle where you get just a massive distribution phase and you get your initial pump up, you sell it off, and then you go into your distribution phase. And I think that this is where we are right now, where there’s a good chance here that the Ether/Bitcoin pair is going to break to the downside.”
He highlights that historically, the ETH/BTC pair generally declines during the months of June through December, and he predicts a decline to as low as 0.03 BTC ($871), an over 52% decrease from its current value.
“So what I would think is going to happen is that Ether/Bitcoin could plummet to around that 0.03 (BTC) to 0.04 (BTC) level and once the Ethereum/Bitcoin valuation gets there, I think that it could mark the end of the altcoin reckoning.”
According to Cowen, the catalyst for the 52% ETH/BTC decline could be a stock market retracement.
“Remember in late 2017, the Ether/Bitcoin pair dropped right here [at .022 BTC]. But then it was the second drop to that level [in 2018] that marked the end of a lot of the altcoin reckoning.
And I think that we had that initial drop, but we still probably need to have a secondary drop to that level (0.049 BTC), and even from there it could drop, and then maybe roll over, and then try to find a bottom.
But I still think that that is the most likely outcome here. And I think the reason that it could happen is because of a potential seasonal correction in the S&P 500.”
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