Top crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Bitcoin (BTC) could see a major market correction next month based on its historical performance in September.
Cowen tells his 762,500 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin could decline by more than 16% from its current value in September.
“Good chance we see $23,000 BTC in September.”
Looking at the trader’s chart, Cowen appears to predict that Bitcoin will drop to the $23,000 price level to retest it as support.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $27,427, up over 5% in the last 24 hours.
Cowen also shares a chart that shows September is the most bearish month for Bitcoin in terms of average returns. Cowen highlights that Bitcoin printed significant losses in September 2019, the most recent pre-halving year, and this September falls in another pre-halving year.
“September average return for BTC is -7%.
In 2019 (the last pre-halving year), BTC dropped 13.91%.”
Cowen says that just because Bitcoin is likely to decline in September that doesn’t mean the price won’t be volatile. He thinks Bitcoin could bounce and print lower highs amid the overall trend to the downside, similar to the price action in September 2019.
“Of course, the path there is a stochastic process. Even in 2019, we first went up a bit in September, only to roll over at the end of it. So we could always get a lower high (rejection off 20-week SMA (simple moving average)/21-week EMA (exponential moving average) or something) before seeing $23,000.”
Generated Image: Midjourney