A closely followed crypto strategist says that Bitcoin (BTC) could be mirroring its 2015 price action when it collapsed after a big surge.
In a new strategy session, analyst Benjamin Cowen tells his 787,000 YouTube subscribers that BTC’s strong rally earlier this year looks reminiscent of its 2015 price movement.
In early 2015, Bitcoin doubled its value in a few months after rallying from a low of about $150 to above $300.
Says Cowen,
“[In 2015, it] was a 2x rally and then a 50% drop. Today it’s a 2x rally, not a 3x to 4x rally like we saw in 2019. It’s more of a 2x rally.
In terms of the magnitude of the rally, it’s more similar to 2015.”
Cowen warns that Bitcoin would witness a 50% devaluation if it repeats its 2015 bear market structure.
“After you get this sizable 2x rally, you just go down and double bottom.
Forget these lower highs… What if there’s just no bid when we break the low? What if Bitcoin breaks $24,800 and there’s just simply not a bid? That becomes an issue, and that’s what happened in 2015 when it broke down. There just simply wasn’t a bid until it hit the prior low.
It dropped 50%… Today, a 50% drop from [the $31,000] high puts Bitcoin back in a double bottom.”
Cowen’s warning comes as Bitcoin flashes a death cross on the daily chart. A death cross happens when a short-term moving average (MA) crosses below a long-term MA while the candles are hovering below both MAs. Traders typically view a death cross as an ominous signal as it indicates that a bearish reversal is in sight.
The analyst’s chart shows that BTC is in the initial stages of a death cross as the 50-day MA (white line) moves below the 200-day MA (orange line).
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $25,933.
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