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September 25, 2023

Here’s When Bitcoin (BTC) May Print the Top of Its Post-Halving Bull Run, According to Crypto Strategist

By Henry Kanapi

An analyst who continues to build a following with his long-term Bitcoin calls is forecasting the timeline for a BTC post-halving bull run.

Pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital tells his 353,800 followers on the social media platform X that he’s looking at the 2017 and 2020 bull market cycles to see when Bitcoin could top out after its halving event.

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The halving, which slashes BTC miners’ reward in half, is traditionally seen as a bullish catalyst as it significantly reduces Bitcoin’s newly issued supply.

Using historical data, Rekt Capital says Bitcoin could witness an 18-month-long bull market after the April 2024 halving.

“Over the past several years, it has taken Bitcoin 518-546 days to top out after its halving. If history repeats, Bitcoin could top in either mid-September 2025 or mid-October 2025.” 

Source: Rekt Capital/X

While Rekt Capital is long-term bullish on Bitcoin, he warns that BTC could collapse in the months leading to the halving.

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“Bitcoin is 210 days away from its halving.

At this point in the cycle in 2019, the price formed a lower high (purple).

After doing so, it took Bitcoin 147 days to crash -62% in the macro higher low.

What would that look like if history repeats in this cycle?

If Bitcoin forms a lower high soon (purple), it would take 147 days for BTC to crash -27% into its macro higher low (blue circle).

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That would mean Bitcoin could revisit its macro higher low in mid-February 2024.

In mid-February 2024, the macro higher low would represent the price point of around ~$20,300.” 

Source: Rekt Capital/X

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $26,258. A move toward Rekt Capital’s downside target suggests an over 22% devaluation for BTC.

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