The chief executive of banking titan JPMorgan is warning that the United States is facing two exceptional headwinds.
In a new Bloomberg Television interview, Jamie Dimon says that he’s keeping a close watch on two extraordinary macro factors that could hit the US economy and produce different outcomes.
According to Dimon, he’s worried about the brewing “storm clouds” because he’s uncertain “if they’re going to hit, when they’re going to hit [and] what they’re going to do.”
“So one is the fiscal money being spent is so big, the largest in peacetime ever in America and kind of around the world with already very high deficits and QT (quantitative tightening) we’ve never had. I know some people think QT will be uneventful. I’m not so sure. At a minimum, I expect volatile markets.
And then all the long-term fiscal things are kind of inflationary. Oil prices, certain commodity prices, the green economy, the restructuring of the trade – you name it – I see is adding to inflation, not subtracting inflation. So I don’t think inflation will keep on going down. It may not so therefore, rates may go higher.
But the biggest storm cloud is geopolitical. It’s Ukraine, the humanitarian crisis. It’s a war not far from here. It’s a long 600 miles, and 500,000 people were killed. It’s nuclear blackmail. It’s going to affect all global relationships in America and China – trade alliances. We don’t know how it’s going to start either. So I just put those two things. I keep a close eye on. And then how it affects the economy is different.”
Dimon is also warning that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates to as high as 7%, which could lead to stagflation or a period of muted economic growth and inflation.
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