A widely followed crypto analyst is issuing a warning that most altcoins are in the midst of severe downtrends that will ultimately keep them below their all-time highs forever.
In a new video update, crypto trader Benjamin Cowen tells his 787,000 YouTube subscribers that most altcoins currently find themselves in “serious declines” that are being overlooked due to Bitcoin’s (BTC) relative resilience.
Cowen also notes that if Bitcoin were to decline, it would crush altcoins even worse.
“A lot of altcoins in the top 100 that are in pretty serious declines right now and a lot of people are completely ignoring it… The only reason people are ignoring it is because Bitcoin’s doing okay so it’s easy to discount [altcoins]…
If you want exposure to the cryptoverse in the pre-halving year, Bitcoin can often offer you a decent amount of exposure to the upside while also minimizing your downside risk in the altcoin market. Some people think that that means that Bitcoin can’t go down – it can.
I mean it went down in the second half of 2019, it even went down in the early phase of the halving year last cycle, so it can go down. It’s just that if it does go down it’s likely going to take the altcoin market with it.”
According to Cowen, very few altcoins that exist right now will ever hit new all-time highs again.
“I think that as a whole the altcoin market will recover. The issue is not ‘will the altcoin market recover?’
In my mind, it’s ‘will the altcoins that people are [dollar cost averaging], will those recover?’ And there might be one out of 10 or one out of 50 or one out of 100 that go on to put in new all-time highs but a lot of them can just go away.”
Cowen goes on to note that the next bull market could be sparked by a massive capitulation event for BTC that rinses out weak hands before springing to the upside.
“Even Bitcoin will probably bend the knee and we’ll have to figure out how low the secondary scare goes before we really get that move into sort of a more sustained bull market.
There’s one interesting thing to look at with Bitcoin in the last two cycles and that [is] what really kickstarted the bull market… The real move to all-time highs did not come until [a] massive capitulation wick.”
Bitcoin is trading for $27,927 at time of writing.
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