BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says that Bitcoin (BTC) could benefit from a potential crisis in the US banking system.
According to Hayes, the “US banking crisis is back” with the Manufacturers and Traders (M&T) Bank being one of the banks likely to face insolvency issues due to high exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) in its loans portfolio.
“[M&T’s] CRE loans are 34% of the total loan book.
A 20% loss on CRE loans, would wipe out 36% of total equity capital. And then they would breach capital adequacy ratios and require a bailout.
M&T is the 20th largest bank in the US uh-oh…
The market smells weakness and shall punish.
Guess we need more free money from the US government to bail out the insolvent banking system.
Bitcoin loves this.”
Hayes also says that rising yields on the 10-year US treasury bond will place “more stress on the US banking system” and this could further benefit Bitcoin as it will force the Federal Reserve to print money to bail out banks.
According to Hayes, the actions of the world’s second and third-largest economies are contributing to the rising US treasury bond yields.
“Putting aside the Hamas v. Israel two-sided tragedy, the action to watch is over in northeast Asia. Both China and Japan are committed to weakening their currencies and it will lead to disaster for US Treasury bond holders a.k.a. muppets.
As the Japanese yuan weakens, 10-year US treasury bond yields rise. Japan can manage the speed of the devaluation by selling down its holdings of treasuries which is putting upward pressure on yields.
If Japan weakens, China must as well as compete for global exports. Chinese yuan is approximately 10% overvalued vs. Japanese yen based on historical recent trends.
Yuan is strong, and that’s why capital is fleeing China because the yuan can buy a lot more than it should when viewed against the monetary fundamentals.
China is managing the speed of yuan weakening by selling US treasuries as well. China also has a phat stack of dogshit bonds to liquidate, which puts upward pressure on yields.”
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