Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo says that Bitcoin (BTC) will likely never go down below $30,000 if a pattern that has held true since 2012 stays intact.
Woo tells his one million followers on the social media platform X that he’s keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s cost density map.
According to Woo, the map marks levels where long-term Bitcoin holders bought their coins while showing how those levels changed over time. Looking at the contour map, Woo says a pattern has emerged outlining areas where investors strongly agree on the value of BTC.
The on-chain analyst adds that there are eight price levels of “strong agreed value” so far, and BTC has never revisited these areas.
“We’ll probably never see BTC going below $30,000 again if this on-chain pattern holds true… (8 for 8 so far)…
DENSE HORIZONTAL BANDS:
These are price regions where much of the supply moved between investors reflecting strong agreed value.
PATTERN:
Whenever BTC had:
(a) strong bands of agreed price
(b) coming out of a bear market
(c) and leading into the next halvening (marked in vertical bands)
… the price never comes back to retest this band of support.
CONTEXT:
Why ‘up only?’ Bitcoin is far from a commodity market at saturation. What we’re seeing across the 13 years of this chart is BTC’s widespread adoption. The network had 10,000 users in 2010. Today there are well over 300 million people using it as a store of value technology. This is only going to climb with a spot ETF (exchange-traded fund).”Â
Looking at Woo’s chart, the first two areas of strong agreed value are below $10 with the next three under $1,000. The sixth, seventh and eighth price levels are all below $20,000 with the potential ninth area under $30,000.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $36,113.
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