Analyst Benjamin Cowen is putting out his forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market over the coming month.
Cowen tells his 796,000 YouTube subscribers in a new video that he thinks “April is going to be a very interesting month” for the crypto industry.
“I expect a ton of volatility in April especially as alt/Bitcoin pairs are starting to roll over, especially as Bitcoin dominance is potentially starting to break out.”
Bitcoin is trading at $70,083 at time of writing.
According to Cowen, the sentiment in the market will turn bearish if Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which measures Bitcoin’s share of the crypto markets, rises by a little over five percentage points from the current level.
In a bearish environment, a rising BTC.D suggests that altcoins are losing value faster than Bitcoin.
“We are getting pretty close. The range here that we’re looking at is 55.3%. So above 55.3%, that could be the warning sign. That could be the risk-off signal for the summer. And that’s what I would be looking at going into the summer months.”
The Bitcoin dominance level is at 49.6% at time of writing.
The widely followed analyst says that whether Bitcoin peaks early during this cycle (left-translated peak) or peaks more than a year after the halving (normal cycle peak), will likely be determined by US monetary policy.
“Whether it is a normal cycle peak or a left-translated peak will probably depend on what happens in the fourth quarter (Q4) this year. That’s my view. If Bitcoin in Q4 is crashing in a recession-like environment as the unemployment rate is just sort of going higher…if that happens and we get some type of like mild recession and then the Federal Reserve just starts printing again, then why not have another rally in 2025?”
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