A popular trader known for several accurate crypto market calls is outlining his Bitcoin forecast after the BTC halving last week.
The pseudonymous analyst known as Dave the Wave shares a chart with his 147,000 followers on the social media platform X that indicates Bitcoin could reach $169,500 in the last quarter of 2024.
According to Dave the Wave, Bitcoin has consistently printed diminishing returns after every bull market since 2012. For the current cycle, the trader expects BTC to generate gains of over 626% from the bottom – a significant reduction from the 1,275% gains witnessed during the 2020 cycle.
“The near only constant is reduced return.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $66,938, up over 3.5% in the past day.
Dave the Wave analyzes Bitcoin’s possible path forward using the logarithmic growth curve (LGC), an investing model that aims to forecast BTC’s market cycle highs and lows while filtering out short-term volatility.
The analyst explains that Bitcoin hitting a fresh all-time high before the halving is not so out of the ordinary. According to Dave the Wave, the halving marks the midpoint of a bull market and he expects BTC to ignite a steep rally from this point toward the top of his LGC model.
“A lot is being made of the current Bitcoin halving being at the highest price as compared to previously.
But this is not so significant when you see that previous halvings were all pushing previous all-time highs…. with halving prices within the last month’s spike of the previous ‘cycle’ highs…
The takeaway from this thread of charts is that halvings have all been, more or less, recoveries of price… and marking something of a midway point toward the peaks.
Also, that the initial peak last time should be considered the macro top [momentum-wise] even though a nominal higher price was seen on the second peak.”
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