Prominent on-chain analyst Checkmate is updating his outlook on Bitcoin’s (BTC) current market cycle and says that a parabolic move to the upside is likely in sight.
The pseudonymous analyst tells his 90,000 followers on the social media platform X that based on previous cycles, Bitcoin is most likely in for about six months of “chopsolidation” – or a choppy period of consolidation with no real trend shift.
[adinserter block="1"]After six months, Checkmate says that six months to a year’s worth of parabolic moves could be in store, based on historical precedence.
“Bitcoin history tends to rhyme, and thus far, this cycle is no different.
The song sung during the last two cycles paints around six-months of chopsolidation ahead of us, followed by 6-12 months of parabolic advance.”
While some are speculating that Bitcoin’s bull run may have already seen its top, Checkmate says such a scenario would be a major break from the “norm” of BTC’s past market cycles.
“If we measure from the cycle high, we see the same chorus.
Establishing a bull market top here would no question be a major break from the Bitcoin norm. It could for sure happen, but we must dig deeper to investigate…
April so far has seen prices drop by over $8,250 MoM (month over month)
I’m expecting text messages from the sidelines saying ‘Hey man, what’s up with Bitcoin, it’s down a lot, I hope you sold it?'”
Checkmate isolates every year in which a Bitcoin halving takes place, and notes that corrections like the one BTC has had since March are par for the course. The analyst also notes that the end of halving years tend to be quite bullish for Bitcoin.
“If we isolate Bitcoin halving years only (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) we can see MoM performance via table and chart.
MoM corrections of this magnitude are the norm, not the exception, and the end of the year is usually pretty powerful (as per first charts).”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $63,433.
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